Association of Agrometeorologists

Simulating impact of climate change on mustard (Brassica juncea) production in Himachal Pradesh


The study examines the impact of climate change on mustard crop using. Info Crop simulation model after calibration and validation for Sub temperate and sub humid conditions. The IPCC-2004 seasonal climatic scenarios for temperature (0.74ºC for 2020 and 1.71ºC for 2050) for Himachal Pradesh were used to simulate impact of climate change scenarios. The days to flowering, days to physiological maturity and yield indicated the best fit. Under climate change scenarios, days to flowering and days to maturity showed reduction of 1 to 4 and 4 to 19 days for 2020 and 5 to 13 and 10 to 23 days for 2050 respectively due to elevated temperature and decreasing rainfall. The seed yield also showed decreasing trend ranging between 4 to 16% and 9 to 25% for the crop sown on October 10, October 20 and October 30 during 2020 and 2050 respectively. Late sown crop (November 9) showed an increase in seed yield to the tune of 1 to 12% and 12 to 17% for 2020 and 2050 respectively. Under present climatic scenario (2008-09), October 10 is the best planting window while advantage of increase in yield under late sown (November) conditions was observed during climate change scenarios 2020 and 2050. Hence, delayed sowing windows under elevated temperature proved beneficial under sub-humid and sub temperate climate of Himachal Pradesh.

Mustard, simulation, climate change, impact, assessment and adaptation