CAI CHENG-ZHI, LIAO CONG-JIAN, XIAO DAN, ZENG XIAO-SHAN and ZUO JIN
The crop yield potential of world soybean from 2019 to 2028 has been projected using ARIMA model based on the yields from 1961 to 2018. Both annual global mean temperature and the yields of world soybean have been projected to rise during the ensuing decade 2019-2028. Projected average yields of world soybean varies from 2841 to 3276 kg ha-1 while 4324 to 4807 kg ha-1 in the case of top (national) yields of world soybean. Annual global mean temperatures may vary from 15.0 to 15.3oC and likely to exert positive impact on average yield (R squared = 0.80) while negative on top yield (R squared = 0.40) of world soybean. It may be concluded that for world soybean yields in 2019 to 2028, the opportunities for improving production should be dependent on both high and low-yielding countries as the yield remained between 30 and 70 per cent of potential limit i.e. in middle place around the turn-point of S-shaped curve in long-term trend partly affected by global warming.
World soybean, yield potential, ARIMA model, global warming